KCTS 9 Washington Poll: Inslee Holds Slight Lead Over McKenna, Ballot Measures Leading

The latest poll by KCTS showed that gubernatorial candidates Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee remain in a close race, with Inslee having a 3 percentage point lead among likely voters, which is within the margin of error.

Gubernatorial candidates Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee remain in a tight race that sees Inslee with a small lead among registered and likely voters, and the statewide ballot measures are all leading by double-digit margins, according to the latest KCTS 9 Washington Poll, which was conducted by the University of Washington.

Do you agree with the poll? Log in and tell us in the comments.

According to the poll, McKenna leads Inslee in the eastern part of the state, 56.6 percent to 30.6 percent, but Inslee has a lead over McKenna in the Puget Sound, 53.9 percent to 41.5 percent and in the western part of the state in general, 46.6 percent to 44.4 percent. The lead is within the poll's margin of error.

President Barack Obama also has a 20 percentage point lead ahead of Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to the poll.

The public TV station has provided all the details of the poll, plus plenty of detail about how the poll was conducted and a breakdown of poll results by subcategories, on the KCTS 9 Vote 2012 website.

Candidate Registered Voters  Likely Voters Governor Inslee 47.2% 48.7% McKenna 45.5% 45.6% Senator Baumgartner 31.6% 33.3% Cantwell 59.4% 60.8% Attorney General Dunn 32.4% 34.0% Ferguson 44.2% 44.9% President Obama 56.4% 57.1% Romney 35.9% 36.4%   Ballot Measures

Referendum 74 (Gay Marriage) Yes 57.3% 57.9% No 36.2% 36.9% Initiative 1185 (Supermajority Tax Requirement) Yes 53.0% 52.0% No 34.2% 36.8% Initiative 1240 (Charter Schools) Yes 55.3% 55.5% No 36.4% 37.5% Initiative 502 (Decriminalizing Marijuana) Yes 55.8% 55.4% No 36.7% 37.6%


A third of Washington voters have already sent in their ballots, and a majority of those voters favored Obama (59.9 percent) and Inslee (51.2 percent), according to KCTS's results, possibly caused by a strong nationwide early get-out-the-vote effot by Democrats nationwide, said Matt Barreto, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington.

The poll also took into account people who may have lied about opposition to Referendum 74, according to Barreto, by moving some undecideds into the "no" column if they reported having discomfort with sexual minorities, a high level of religiosity, conservative views or people who wanted to give sexual minorities "some" rights.

Barreto said that some may have declined to state that they were against Referendum 74 because of perceptions that it is more socially acceptable to support it than to not support it. 

The poll was conducted between Oct. 18 to 31. A total of 722 registered voters and 632 likely votersthroughout the state of Washington were interviewed, yielding a 3.6 percent and 3.9 percent margin of error respectively, according to KCTS.

Question Mark November 02, 2012 at 06:48 PM
Interesting that in the last two weeks of October, when this poll was conducted, that 21% of likely voters were still undecided on the state Attorney General race. I suppose that the fact that both candidates are from King County and relative (statewide) political unknowns may be a factor. Everyone, please remember to vote.
Don November 02, 2012 at 08:19 PM
Great, one more useless Democrat to perpetuate excessive government spending, give away programs, government entitlements and destruction of the nations economy.
Edwin November 02, 2012 at 08:53 PM
Do not listen or believe in polls. Just vote for who you want! Do not give up on your candidates. McKenna will win
Susan November 02, 2012 at 10:36 PM
I am very happy and feel honored to vote for Jay Inslee. I was disappointed when I knew he would have to leave as our Congressperson (I felt he shared my views on more issues than anyone I have ever followed in politics) but I feel a great sense of hope for our state with him as our next Governor. I have voted and it feels good!
Don November 02, 2012 at 11:07 PM
Well done Susan. Have to go, just lost my lunch.
Dean November 03, 2012 at 05:46 PM
Why are people voting for Charter schools. All the do is take more money out of public schools.
Bruce November 03, 2012 at 05:49 PM
Confirming further that my vote is useless in this state.
Bruce November 03, 2012 at 05:53 PM
Don, its called free enterprise. If schools have to compete for students, they will up their game to attract them. Namely, getting rid of crappy teachers who are protected by their union seniority status and cutting some of the beaurocratic waste that is imbedded in the district offices.
John Anderson November 03, 2012 at 06:38 PM
I have been asking myself the same question. I think many people with good intentions support charter schools, but are naive about what all the implications are. Here is more discussion about this topic on our local Patch: http://enumclaw.patch.com/articles/email-to-the-editor-i-1240-takes-oversight-funds-away-from-local-public-schools
dexterjibs November 04, 2012 at 03:53 AM
Dean, open your mind. The public schools are failing and yet they continue to take more and more tax money all the while they claim they are not getting enough tax dollars. Competition is good for schools. The teachers union doesn't help either when worthless teachers are protected by the union and continue to work.
Doreen Anderson November 04, 2012 at 05:15 PM
Hi Dexter--You know, in the 15 years we have been connected with Enumclaw schools, our grandkids have had many truly excellent teachers. (And one bad one, who is no longer teaching....hmmm) I am not always happy with the local system, the state, the WASL/HSPE, etc, (don't get me started) but our classroom teachers, aides and specialists have served our kids well. THEY are not failing. I really respect them and want to continue to support them through the public schools, and will vote no on 1240.
Hoke Overland November 04, 2012 at 07:11 PM
Charter schools will have a positive impact on our public schools. A little bit of competition is always good; It makes everyone pick up their game. Our poor learning and low test scores will turn around, just like other states who have passed charter schools with performance oversight.
John Anderson November 05, 2012 at 03:56 AM
Actually the results in other states have been mixed so far. Only 17% of charter schools have done better, while 46% have done about the same. 37% have actually done worse (reading and math). A scorecard like that should convince voters not to turn education tax dollars over to corporations and not to spend $3 million on more management at OSPI.
dexterjibs November 05, 2012 at 05:17 AM
Doreen, that is great. So adding charter schools to the mix won't affect you. In fact, the competition may improve public schools.
Doreen Anderson November 05, 2012 at 07:00 AM
Hi Dexter I should clarify that the THEY I wrote referred to the teachers (not to the kids), and I was saying that THEY, the teachers, are not failing. (Unclear antecedent, so my fault if unclear.) My point was that most of our teachers are working hard and doing a great job. I want to support them by keeping funds in our local public schools so they can improve programs for ALL kids. And that will become more difficult as more funds are diverted from our programs. There will definitely be a fiscal impact on our local districts from 1240. And yes, the issue of charter schools does affect me. And all of us, whether we have kids or not. We all live in a society that is shaped by the schools. It is going to be a different society when the schools are run by corporations. I know some people are looking forward to that. I'm not (and I did think this might be an issue on which you and I might agree).
John Anderson November 05, 2012 at 09:16 PM
It is understandable that people might think competition would improve schools. But competition creates winners and losers, and the aim of schools is to educate everyone. Teachers do not perform better by pitting them against each other. Competing schools are judged by standardized tests, and those tests have already narrowed the curriculum and forced educators to teach to the test. And high stakes competition is a powerful incentive for some people to cheat (whether in schools, professional sports, Wall Street, etc).
John Anderson November 05, 2012 at 09:18 PM
The driving force for charter schools in our state has been the Washington Business Roundtable and its non-profit lobbying corporation, Partnership for Learning. The board chair of Partnership, from its founding in 1994 and for more than a decade, was Kerry Killinger, CEO of the failed Washington Mutual. He wrote extensively about the promise of charter schools and did much to build momentum for them in our state. But Killinger's obsession to make WaMu the Walmart of banking (to use his own words) led to the largest collapse of a U.S. financial institution in history. He left with $100 million in salary and bonuses, while retirement funds for his employees and pension funds for many others across the country collapsed. Perhaps Kerry Killinger had a better plan for Washington Schools than for banks.
Don Means November 06, 2012 at 12:25 AM
Here's what I've learn during the 68 years of my life. Only one party ever, ever, ever complains that his/her opponent is a 'big spender'. It's always the Republican complaining about a 'big spending' Democrat. That is why when I started hearing ads from Jay Inslee complaining about how Rob Mckenna was a big spender I took note. I don't know if Inslee will win or lose but he's ads say he thinks his goose is cooked. We can only hope.


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